Workshop on seasonal hurricane forecasting

Workshops 
BSC hosts the Workshop on seasonal hurricane forecasting on Friday 2nd of November 2018.

Date: 02/Nov/2018 Time: 09:00

Place:

Aula de Teleensenyament room:

Jordi Girona, 1-3
Edifici B3 - Campus Nord

Primary tabs

  • Identify gaps in knowledge
  • Identify opportunity for research and collaboration
  • Discuss the use of new technologies
  • Review skill of recent forecasts
     



    10:30-11:30

    Atlantic Basin Seasonal Hurricane Prediction: Past, Present and Future

    Phil Klotzbach (Colorado State University)

    11:30-12:00

    Change of venue (to Severo Ochoa room, BSC) + Coffee break

    12:00-12:15

    Introductory word and objectives of the workshop (LP)

     

    Introduction of participants (if workshop is small enough, (<15 people) each participant could prepare 1 slide explaining where they are from and what their interest is in the topic)

    12:15-13:45

    Session 1: 30 years on: What do we know and what are we missing?

     

    Chair: Suzana Camargo

    Rapporteur:

     

    Key points:

    • What can we do well (if anything)?

    • Is that useful to anyone? And can we make the information more relevant/actionable?

    • What do we struggle with? Of those, which ones are

      • Most important?

      • Most achievable to answer?

      • Is there an overlap?

    • What is stopping us from making any progress?

    • How can we improve these particular aspects?

      • Targeted experiments?

      • Analysis?

    • Where do landfall forecasts fit into this picture?

    • Is there possibility/interest for collaborating on these aspects, either through a publication or through a collaborative project (e.g. H2020)?

    13:45-14:45

    Lunch (Hall of MareNostrum)

    14:45-16:00

    Session 2: Machine learning: application to hurricane forecasting

     

    Chair: Tom Philp

    Rapporteur:

     

    Key points:

    • Introductory talk on machine learning by Nicolas Bruneau (Reask)

    • Short presentation of work done by Albert Kahira on the application of machine learning to the seasonal hurricane forecasting problem

    • Can ML be applied to solve some of the problems identified previously?

    • Can ML be used to develop a user-relevant application? If so, what would that look like?

    16:00-16:30

    Coffee (Severo Ochoa room)

    16:30-18:00

    Session 3: Contrasting the forecast performances over the 2017 and 2018 Atlantic season

     

    Key points:

    • Preliminary analysis of the 2018 Atlantic forecasts

    • Performance review of the 2017 Atlantic forecasts

    • Can we forecast extreme seasons like 2017?

    • Suggested modifications/improvements for hurricane website.

     

    Chair:  Phil Klotzbach

    Rapporteur:

    18:00-18:30

    Guided tour of the supercomputer

    19:30

    Dinner (Gut)